"The Economic Consequences of a War with Iraq,"
by William D. Nordhaus,
Yale University, November 2002
Selected parts of this essay will be published in The New York Review
of Books, November 2002. The complete study is available in electronic
form. For a MS Word version, click here
. For a pdf version, click here
of war are beating as United States marches, two steps forward and one
step backwards, toward war with Iraq....
But what of the costs? ... If the casualty
estimates were in the thousands or tens of thousands, if the costs to the
economy were major tax increases or high inflation or deep recession, and
if the United States were to become a pariah in the world because of brutal
attacks on civilian populations, then decision makers in the White House and
the Congress might not post so expeditiously to battle.
Given the salience of cost, it is surprising
that there has been no systematic public analysis of the economics of the
coming conflict in Iraq. This essay is written in an attempt to fill the
appendix on the oil market is available, click here