Most of my recent scholarly papers are available as Cowles
Foundation Discussion Papers
Here, there is a complete listing of my Discussion Papers (1985present).
They are are available for download in as pdf files.
To get my earlier papers, one might consult the Publication List, button below, to
identify names of papers and journals, and one can then find many of these papers on JSTOR. One may also find many of my papers online at the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Most of my recent scholarly work is listed in the Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper series. A few
are also available online here.
Valuation Ratios and the Long-Run Stock Market Outlook is
a pdf file of a paper that John Campbell and I wrote in July 1997, which is based on our
joint testimony before the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System December 3,
A paper I wrote in 1996, Price Earnings Ratios as
Forecasters of Returns describes my outlook in 1996, just before the testimony at the
Board of Governors. This paper is superseded by the "Valuation Ratios" paper,
just above, that I wrote later with John Campbell.
Social Security and
Institutions for Intergenerational Intragenerational and International Risk Sharing,
Carnegie Rochester Conference, April 1998. [CFDP 1185] (abstract)
Social Security and Risks to Our Incomes in the Long Term,
McKenna Lecture, Saint Vincent's College, January 27, 1999.
towards the stock market in the summer of 1997 are analyzed in an article in
Macro Markets and
Financial Security, with Stefano G. Athanasoulis and Eric van Wincoop,
FRBNY Economic Policy Review (April 1999), 5(1): 21-39.
"Property Derivatives for Managing European Real-Estate Risk
" 2009 is joint with Frank Fabozzi and Radu Tunaru.