Articles in Scholarly Journals

Public Policy and OP-ED Pieces
Project Syndicate Columns
Short Articles, Comments and Book Reviews
"Speculative Asset Prices," American Economic Review (June 2014), 104(6): 1486-1517 [CFP 1424]
"Why Is Housing Finance Still Stuck in Such a Primitive Stage?," American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings (May 2014), 104(5): 73-76 [CFP 1421]
"Aligning Incentives at Systemically Important Financial Institutions: A Proposal by the Squam Lake Group" (with Martin N. Baily, John Y. Campbell, John H. Cochrane, Douglas W. Diamond, Darrell Duffie, Kenneth R. French, Anil K. Kashyap, Frederic S. Mishkin, Raghuram Rajan, David S. Scharfstein, Matthew J. Slaughter, Hyun Song Shin, Jeremy Stein, and René M. Stulz), Journal of Applied Corporate Finance (Fall 2013), 25(4): 37-40
"Capitalism and Financial Innovation," Financial Analysts Journal (January/February 2013), 69(1)
"Irving Fisher, Debt Deflation, and Crises," Journal of the History of Economic Thought (June 2013), 35(2): 179-183
"Mitigating Financial Fragility with Continuous Workout Mortgages" (with Rafal M. Wojakowski, M. Shahid Ebrahim, and Mark B. Shackleton), Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization (January 2013), 85: 269-285
"Reflections on Finance and the Good Society," American Economic Review (May 2013), 103(3): 402-405
"Wealth Effects Revisited 1975-2012" (with Karl E. Case and John M. Quigley), Critical Finance Review (2013), 2(1): 101-128
"A Pricing Framework for Real Estate Derivatives," European Financial Management (November 2012), 18(5): 762-789
"Economists as Worldly Philosophers" (with Virginia M. Shiller), American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings (May 2011), 103(3): 171-175
"Spotting Bubbles," The International Economy (Spring 2011), 34-35
"Crisis and Innovation," The Journal of Portfolio Management (Spring 2010), 36(3): 14-19
"Encouraging Saving: Lessons for Developed and Developing Countries," Yale Journal of International Affairs (Winter 2010), 5(1): 153-156
"How Should the Financial Crisis Change How We Teach Economics?" Journal of Economic Education (September 2010), 41(4): 403-409
"Property Derivatives for Managing European Real-Estate Risk" (with Frank Fabozzi and Radu Tunaru), European Financial Management (2010), 16(1): 8-26 [CFP 1300]
"The Squam Lake Report: Fixing the Financial System" (with Kenneth French, Martin Baily, John Campbell, John Cochrane, Douglas Diamond, Darrell Duffie, Anil Kashyap, Frederic Mishkin, Raghuram Rajan, David Scharfstein, Hyun Song Shin, Matthew Slaughter, Jeremy Stein and René Stulz), Journal of Applied Corporate Finance (Summer 2010), 22(3): 8-21
"Trills Instead of T-Bills: It's Time to Repalce Part of Government Debt with Shares in GDP" (with Mark Kamstra), The Economists' Voice (September 2010), Vol. 7, Issue 3, Article 5
"Hedging Real-Estate Risk" (with Frank Fabozzi and Radu Tunaru), Journal of Portfolio Management, Special Real Estate Issue (2009), 35(5): 92-103
"Understanding Inflation-Indexed Bond Markets" (with John Campbell and Luis Viceira), Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (Spring 2009), 1: 79-138. Also published in Michael Haliassos, ed., Financial Innovation: Too Much or Too Little?, MIT Press, 2013, pp. 29-70
"Unlearned Lessons from the Housing Bubble," The Economists' Voice, (2009), Vol. 6, Issue 7
"Understanding Recent Trends in House Prices and Homeownership," in Housing, Housing Finance and Monetary Policy, Jackson Hole Conference Series, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 2008, pp. 85-123 [CFDP 1630]
"Innovations to Foster Entrepreneurship." In Edwin Phelps and Hans-Werner Sinn, eds., Perspectives on the Performance of the Continent's Economies, 2007
"Low Interest Rates and High Asset Prices: An Interpretation in Terms of Changing Popular Economic Models," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (2007), 2: 111-132
"Designing Indexed Units of Account." In Lawrence R. Klein, ed., Long-Run Growth and Short-Run Stabilization: Essays in Memory of Albert Ando, Elgar, 2006, pp. 288-302
"Irrational Exuberance Revisited." CFA Institute Conference Proceedings Quarterly (September 2006), 23(3): 16-25. Also in Rodney N. Sullivan and Jeffrey Diermeier, eds., Global Perspectives on Investment Management, CFA Institute, 2006
"The Life-Cycle Personal Accounts Proposal for Social Security: An Evaluation of President Bush's Proposal," Journal of Policy Modeling (May 2006), 28(4): 427-444
"Long-Term Perspectives on the Current Boom in Home Prices," Economists' Voice (2006), Vol. 3, Issue 4
"Tools for Financial Innovations: Neoclassical versus Behavioral Finance," The Financial Review (2006), 41: 1-8 [CFP 1180]
"Behavioral Economics and Institutional Innovation," Southern Economic Journal (2005), 72(2): 269-283 [CFP 1150]
"Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market vs. the Housing Market," with Karl E. Case and John M. Quigley, Advances in Macroeconomics (2005) 5(1): 1–34. [CFP 1181, CFDP 1335]
"Distinguished Guest Lecture: Behavioral Economics and Institutional Innovation," Southern Economic Journal (2005), 72(2): 269-283
"The Invention of Inflation-Indexed Bonds in Early America" in William N. Goetzmann and Geert K. Rouwenhorst, eds., The Origins of Value: The Financial Innovations that Created Modern Capital Markets Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2005. [CFDP 1442]
"The Life-Cycle Personal Accounts Proposal for Social Security: A Review," NBER Working Paper No. 11300, April 2005. [CFDP 1504]
"Life-Cycle Portfolios as Government Policy," Economists’ Voice (2005), 2(1), Article 14. [CFP 1182]
"Samuelson’s Dictum and the Stock Market," with Jeeman Jung, Economic Inquiry (2005). [CFP 1183, CFDP 1386]
"Valuation Ratios and the Long Run Stock Market Outlook: An Update" (with John Y. Campbell), in Richard H. Thaler, Advances in Behavioral Finance II, Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2005. [CFDP 1295]
"The Design and Regulation of Income-Linked Loans," in An Executive Briefing on Financing Human Capital, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2004.
"Home-Buyers, Housing, and the Macroeconomy" (with Karl E. Case and John M. Quigley), in Anthony Richards and Tim Robinson, eds., Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, Reserve Bank of Australia, 2004, pp. 149–88.
"Macro Markets: Managing Risks to National Economies," in Public Finance in a Globalizing World: Innovations in Theory and Practice, New York: United Nations Development Program, 2004.
"The MD Interview: Robert J. Shiller," by John Y. Campbell, Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2004.
"Radical Financial Innovation," for Entrepreneurship, Innovation and the Growth Mechanism of the Free Market Economies, in Honor of William Baumol, Princeton University Press, 2004, pp. 306-323 [CFDP 1461]
"From Efficient Markets Theory to Behavioral Finance," Journal of Economic Perspectives (2003), 17(1) [CFP 1055]
"Is There a Bubble in the Housing Market?", Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (2003), 2: 299-362 [CFP 1089]
"Social Security and Individual Accounts as Elements of Overall Risk-Sharing," AEA Papers and Proceedings (2003), 93(2) [CFP 1061]
"Bubbles, Human Judgment and Expert Opinion," Financial Analysts Journal (May/June 2002), 58(3): 18–26; reprinted in The ICFAI Journal of Behavioral Finance (India) (September 2004), 1(3): 7–17. [CFDP 1303]
"Defining Residual Risk-Sharing Opportunities: Pooling World Income Components," with Stefano Athanasoulis, Research in Economics 56: 61–84, 2002.
"Exuberant Reporting." Harvard International Review (Spring 2001), 23(1): 60-65
"World Income Components: Measuring and Exploiting Risk Sharing Opportunities" (with Stefano Athanasoulis), American Economic Review (September 2001), 91(4): 1031–54 [CFP 1029]
"Measuring Bubble Expectations and Investor Confidence," Journal of Psychology and Financial Markets (2000), 1(1): 49–60, 2000. [CFDP 1212, CFP 1004]
"Moral Hazard and Home Equity Conversion" (with Allan Weiss), Real Estate Economics (2000), 28(1) [CFP 1014]
"The Significance of the Market Portfolio" (with Stefano G. Athanasoulis), The Review of Financial Studies (Summer 2000), 13(2): 301–329. [CFP 997]
"Evaluating Real Estate Valuation Systems" (with Allan N. Weiss), Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics (1999) 18(2):147–61. [CFP 983]
"Home Equity Insurance" (with Allan Weiss), Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics (1999), 19(1): 21–47 [CFDP 1074, CFP 1007]
"Human Behavior and the Efficiency of the Financial System," in J.B. Taylor and M. Woodford, eds., Handbook of Macroeconomics, Vol. 1, pp.1305–40, 1999. [CFP 1025]
"Macro Markets and Financial Security," with Stefano Athanasoulis and Eric van Wincoop, Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Vol. 5 No. 1, pp. 21–39, April 1999
"Social Security and Institutions for Intergenerational, Intragenerational and International Risk Sharing," Carnegie–Rochester Series in Public Policy (June 1999), 50:165–204. [CFDP 1185, CFP 993]
"Designing Indexed Units of Account," presented at American Economic Association Meetings, Chicago Illinois, January, 1998. [CFDP 1179]
"Indexed Units of Account: Theory and Analysis of Historical Experience," in Fernando Lefort and Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, Indexation, Inflation, and Monetary Policy, Central Bank of Chile, Santiago Chile, 2002. Also appeared as National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper #6356, Cambridge, MA, 1998. [CFDP 1171]
"Labor Income Indices Designed for Use in Contracts Promoting Income Risk Management" (with Ryan Schneider), Review of Income and Wealth (June 1998), Series 44(2):163–182. [CFDP 1110, CFP 964]
"Macro Markets: Motivations, Techniques, and Proposals," Conference Proceedings, 22nd Annual Spring Research Seminar, Chicago Board of Trade, May 12, 1998.
"Macro Markets and Financial Security," with Stefano Athanasoulis and Eric van Wincoop, unpublished paper, 1998.
"Valuation Ratios and the Long-Run Stock Market Outlook" (with John Y. Campbell), Journal of Portfolio Management (Winter 1998), 24(2):11–26.
"Expanding the Scope of Individual Risk Management: Moral Hazard and Other Behavioral Considerations," Economic Notes (1997), 26(2): 361–78. [CFDP 1145]
"A Scorecard for Indexed Government Debt" (with John Y. Campbell), in Ben Bernanke and Julio Rotermberg, eds., NBER Macroeconomics Annual. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, pp. 155–197. [CFDP 1125]
"Indexed Units of Account for the United States," 1997. []
"Public Resistance to Indexation: A Puzzle," for Brookings Panel on Economic Activity (1997). (Formerly entitled, "Why Are People So Indifferent to Indexation?") [CFP 946]
"A Decade of Boom and Bust in Single Family Home Prices: Boston and Los Angeles, 1983–1993" (with Karl E. Case), Revue D'Economie Financiere (December 1993), pp. 389–407. Reprinted in New England Economic Review (March/April 1994), 40–51.
"Mortgage Default Risk and Real Estate Prices: The Use of Index-Based Futures and Options in Real Estate" (with Karl E. Case), Journal of Housing Research (1996), 7(2): 243–258. [CFDP 1098]
"Speculative Booms and Crashes," Henry B. Thornton Lecture, City University, London, 1989, in Forrest Capie and Geoffrey E. Wood (eds.), Monetary Economics in the 1990s., Macmillan, 1996, pp. 58–74.
"Why Did the Nikkei Crash? Expanding the Scope of Expectations Data Collection" (with Fumiko Kon-Ya and Yoshiro Tsutsui), Review of Economics and Statistics (1996), 78: 156–64. [CFDP 1012, CFP 922]
"Why Do People Dislike Inflation?" in Christina Romer and David Romer, eds., Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, National Bureau of Economic Research and University of Chicago Press, 1996. [CFDP 1115]
"Aggregate Income Risks and Hedging Mechanisms," Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance (1995). [CFDP 1048]
"Conversation, Information, and Herd Behavior," American Economic Review (1995), 85(2): 181–85. [CFDP 1092 & CFP 909]
"Hedging Inflation and Income Risks," Manchester School of Economic and Social Studies (1995), 63: 1–21 (supplement "Papers in Money, Macroeconomics and Finance).
"Speculative Behavior and the Functioning of Risk Markets," Moneda y Crédito (1995).
"World Income Components: Measuring and Exploiting International Risk Sharing Opportunities" (with Stefano Athanasoulis), NBER Working Paper No. 5095, April 1995. [CFDP 1097]
"Actual and Warranted Movements in Asset Prices" (with Andrea Beltratti), Oxford Economic Papers (1993), 45: 387–402. [CFDP 970, CFP 859]
"Index-Based Futures and Options Trading in Real Estate" (with Karl E. Case and Allan N. Weiss), Journal of Portfolio Management (Winter 1993). [CFDP 1006]
"Measuring Asset Value for Cash Settlement in Derivative Markets: Hedonic Repeated Measures Indices and Perpetual Futures," Journal of Finance (1993), 48(3): 911–931. [CFDP 1036, CFP 856]
"The Theory of Index-Based Futures and Options Markets,"  Estudios Económicos (El Colegio de México) (July–December, 1993), 8(2): 163–78.
"Hunting for Homo Sovieticus: Situational versus Attitudinal Factors in Economic Behavior" (with Maxim Boycko and Vladimir Korobov), Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (1992), pp. 127–194. Reprinted (in Russian translation) in Constants (Ukraine) (1994), 1(1): 1. [CFP 817]
"Stock Prices and Bond Yields: Can Their Comovements Be Explained in Terms of Present Value Models?" (with Andrea Beltratti), Journal of Monetary Economics (August 1992), 30. [CFDP 953, CFP 833]
"Volatility in U.S. and Japanese Stock Markets," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance (1992), 5(1): 25–29. Excerpt reprinted in Stephen Lofthouse (ed.), Readings in Investments, Wiley, Chichester, 1994, pp. 315–318.
"Arithmetic Repeat Sales Price Estimators," Journal of Housing Economics (1991), 1: 110–26. [CFP 781]
"Investor Behavior in the October 1987 Stock Market Crash: The Case of Japan" (with Fumiko Kon-Ya and Yoshiro Tsutsui), Journal of the Japanese and International Economies (1991), 5: 1–13, 1991.
"Popular Attitudes Towards Free Markets:  The Soviet Union and the United States Compared" (with Maxim Boycko and Vladimir Korobov), American Economic Review (1991), 81(3): 385–400. Also published (in Russian) as "Rinok v Vospriyatii Sovyetskoi i Amerikanskoi Obshchestvennosti (Sravnitelnii Analyz)," in Mirovaya Ekonomika i Mezhdunarodniye Otnosheniya, 2/1992, pp. 39–54.  Abridged version published in textbook The Road to Capitalism, Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, 1992. [CFP 787]
"The Significance of the Growth of Institutional Investing," in New York Stock Exchange, Institutional Investor Fact Book 1991, New York, pp. 21–26.
"Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View" (with John Y. Campbell), Review of Economic Studies (1991), 58: 495–514.
"Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," (with John Campbell), Journal of Political Economy (1987), 95: 1062–1088. Reprinted in R.F. Engle and C.W.J. Granger, eds., Long-Run Economic Relationships. Oxford University Press, 1991. [CFDP 785]
"Comparing Information in Forecasts from Econometric Models" (with Ray C. Fair), American Economic Review (1990), 80(3): 375–389. [CFDP 833R, CFP 754]
"Forecasting Prices and Excess Returns in the Housing Market" (with Karl E. Case), AREUEA Journal (1990), 18(3): 253–273.
"Market Volatility and Investor Behavior," American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings (1990), 80(2): 58–62.
"A Scott-Type Regression Test of the Dividend–Ratio Model," Review of Economics and Statistics (1990), 72(2): 356–361.
"Speculative Prices and Popular Models," Journal of Economic Perspectives (Spring 1990), 4(2): 55–65.
"Comovements in Stock Prices and Comovements in Dividends," Journal of Finance (July 1989), 44: 719–729.
"Causes of Changing Financial Market Volatility,"  in Financial Market Volatility, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 1988, pp. 1–22.
"The Dividend Ratio Model and Small Sample Bias: A Monte Carlo Study" (with John Campbell), Economics Letters (1989), 29: 325–331.
"The Dividend–Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," (with John Campbell), Review of Financial Studies (1988), 1(3): 195–228. [CFDP 812]
"The Efficiency of the Market for Single Family Homes" (with Karl E. Case), American Economic Review (March 1989), 79(1): 125–37. Reprinted in John M. Quigley, ed., The Economics of Housing, Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar, 1997.
"The Informational Content of Ex Ante Forecasts" (with Ray C. Fair), Review of Economics and Statistics (1989), 71(2): 325–331. [CFDP 857, CFP 736]
"Initial Public Offerings: Investor Behavior and Underpricing," NBER Working Paper, 1989.
"Price Conditional Vector Autoregressions and  Theories of Stock Price Determination," in Rui M.C. Guimarañes, Brian G. Kingsman, and Stephen J. Taylor (eds.), A Reappraisal of the Efficiency of Financial Markets. Springer-Verlag, NATO Advanced Science Institute Series, Berlin Heidelberg, 1989, pp. 409–429.
"Survey Evidence on the Diffusion of Interest and Information Among Investors" (with John Pound),  Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization (1989), 12: 47–66. [CFDP 794]
"The Term Structure of Interest Rates," in Benjamin Friedman and Frank Hahn (eds.), Handbook of Monetary Economics. North Holland, 1989. [CFP 766]
The Volatility Debate,"  American Journal of Agricultural Economics (1988), 70(5): 1057–1063.
"The Behavior of Home Buyers in Boom and Post-Boom Markets," (with Karl E. Case), New England Economic Review (November/December, 1988), pp. 29–46. Reprinted in Russian in Constants (Ukraine) (1993), 1(2): 1–20.
"Interpreting Cointegrated Models" (with John Campbell), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Special Issue, Masanao Aoki, ed., "Economic Time Series Models with Random Walk and Other Nonstationary Components" (June/September 1988), 12: 505–522.
"Portfolio Insurance and Other Investor Fashions as Factors in the 1987 Stock Market Crash," in Stanley Fischer, ed., NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 1988.
"Stock Prices, Earnings and Expected Dividends" (with John Campbell), Journal of Finance (July 1988), 43(3): 661–676. [CFDP 858]
"Are Institutional Investors Speculators?" Journal of Portfolio Management (1987), 13(3): 46–52.
"Conventional Valuation and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," in Rudiger Dornbusch, Stanley Fischer and John Bossons, eds., Macroeconomics and Finance: Essays in Honor of Franco Modigliani. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1987, pp. 63–88.
"Estimating the Continuous-Time Consumption-Based Asset-Pricing Model" (with Sanford J. Grossman and Angelo Melino) Journal of Business and Economic Statistics (1987), 5(3): 315–27.
"Expectations," in John Eatwell, Murray Milgate and Peter Newman (eds.), The New Palgrave, New York: Stockton Press, 1987.
"Fashions, Fads and Bubbles in Financial Markets," in Jack Coffee, ed., Knights, Raiders and Targets: The Impact of the Hostile Takeover. Oxford University Press, 1987.
"Prices of Single-Family Homes Since 1970: New Indexes for Four Cities" (with Karl E. Case), New England Economic Review (September/October 1987), 46–56. [CFDP 851]
"Ultimate Sources of Aggregate Variability," American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings (1987), 77(2): 87–92. [CFDP 816]
"The Volatility of Stock Market Prices," Science (January 2, 1987), 235: 33–37. [CFP 670]
"Financial Markets and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," in James L. Butkiewicz, ed., Keynes Economic Legacy. Praeger, 1985.
"The Marsh–Merton Model of Managers' Smoothing of Dividends," American Economic Review (1986), 76(3): 499–503.
"Testing the Random Walk Hypothesis: Power Versus Frequency of Observation" (with Pierre Perron), Economics Letters (1985), 18: 381–386. [CFDP 732]
"The Determinants of Interest Rates: Old Controversies Reopened" (with John Y. Campbell), AEA Papers and Proceedings (May 1984), 74(2): 44-48 (with John Y. Campbell) [CFP 595]
"Expectations and the Prices of Long-Term Assets," in Pierre Malgrange and Pierre–Alain Muet (eds.), Contemporary Macroeconomic Modelling. Basil Blackwell, Oxford, 1984.
"A Simple Account of the Behavior of Long-Term Interest Rates" (with John Y. Campbell), American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings (1984), 74(2): 44–48.
"Smoothness Priors and Nonlinear Regression," Journal of the American Statistical Association (1984), 79(387): 609–615. [CFP 593]
"Stock Prices and Social Dynamics," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (1984), 2: 457–498. [CFDP 719R, CFP 616]
"Theories of Aggregate Stock Price Movements," Journal of Portfolio Management (1984), 10(2): 28–37.
"Forward Rates and Future Policy:  Interpreting the Term Structure of Interest Rates" (with John Y. Campbell and Kermit L. Schoenholtz), Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (1983), 173–224. [CFDP 667]
"Consumption, Asset Markets and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Carnegie–Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Vol. 17. North-Holland Publishing Co., 1982, pp. 203–238.
"Consumption Correlatedness and Risk Measurement in Economics with Nontraded Assets and Heterogeneous Information" (with Sanford Grossman), Journal of Financial Economics (1982), 10: 195–210.
"Alternative Tests of Rational Expectations Models:  The Case of the Term Structure," Journal of Econometrics (1981), 16: 17–87.
"The Determinants of the Variability of Stock Market Prices" (with Sanford Grossman), American Economic Review (1981), 71: 222–227.
"Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?", American Economic Review (June 1981), 71(3): 421–436. Reprinted in Paul Whitely, ed., Economic Policy, Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd., 1996, and in The History of Management Thought, Aldershot Hants, UK: Dartmouth Publishing Company, 1997.
"The Use of Volatility Measures in Assessing Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance (1981), 36: 291–304.
"Can the Federal Reserve Control Real Interest Rates?", in Stanley Fischer (ed.), Rational Expectations and Economic Policy, National Bureau of Economic Research and University of Chicago Press, 1980.
"Distributed Lag Estimators Based on Linear Coefficient Restrictions and Bayesian Generalizations of These Estimators," IHS Journal (1980), 4:163–180.
"Coupon and Tax Effects on New and Seasoned Bond Yields and the Measurement of the Cost of Debt Capital" (with Franco Modigliani), Journal of Financial Economics (1979), 7: 297–318.
"The Volatility of Long Term Interest Rates and Expectations Models of the Term Structure," Journal of Political Economy (1979), 87: 1190–1219.
"Rational Expectations and the Dynamic Structure of Macroeconomic Models:  A Critical Review," Journal of Monetary Economics (1978), 4: 1–44.
"The Gibson Paradox and Historical Movements in Real Long Term Interest Rates" (with Jeremy J. Siegel), Journal of Political Economy (1977), 85(5): 891–898.
"A Distributed Lag Estimator Derived from Smoothness Priors," Econometrica (1973), 41: 775–788. Also in Feinberg and Zellner, eds., Studies in Bayesian Econometrics and Statistics, North Holland, 1975.
"Inflation, Rational Expectations and the Term Structure of Interest Rates" (with Franco Modigliani), Economica (1973), 40(157): 12–43.
"Rational Expectations and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking (1973), 3: 856–860.
"American Casino: The Promises and Perils of Bush’s Ownership Society," The Atlantic, 295(2): 33–35, March 2005.
"How Wall Street Learns to Look the Other Way," New York Times, Op-Ed Page (A25), February 8, 2005.
"Macro Markets: Managing Risks to National Economies," in United Nations Development Program, The New Public Finance: Responding to Global Challenges. 2005.
"The Next Bubble (or Bust)" World Economic Forum Global Agenda, Issue No. 3, Annual Meeting 2005, Davos, Switzerland, pp. 106-107.
"People Are Talking ...," Wall Street Journal, Opinion Page, June 2, 2005
"Behavioral Finance, Irrational Markets, and the Search for Value," Greenwich Roundtable Quarterly, 2:5-8, 2004.
"Figuring out Financial Markets: More Psychology than Economics," IMF Survey (April 2004), 33: 11–12 (interviewed by Prakash Loungani).
"An Interview with Robert Shiller," [by John Y. Campbell] Macroeconomic Dynamics (2004), 8: 649–83.
"Irrational Exuberance and Behavioral Finance: A Conversation with Robert J. Shiller, Ph.D., about Integrating Investing with Social Sciences," Journal of Investment Consulting (Summer 2004), 7(1): 10–20.
"Long-Term Contracts Covarying with the Price of Goods," Nihon Keizai Shimbun, April 27, 2004, p. 23. (in Japanese).
"Me Casa Es Su Housing Bubble," Wall Street Journal Augsust 24, 2004, A13.
"Unlocking the Liquidity of New Asset Classes," The 2004 Indexing Almanac, New York: Institutional Investor News and Information Management Network, 2004, pp. 31–32.
"A Conversation with Robert Shiller" (interview by Peter Passell) The Milken Review (Second Quarter 2003), 5(2): 76–83.
"Democratizing Capitalism," Project Syndicate, May 2003.
"Diverse Views on Asset Bubbles," in William C. Hunter, George C, Kaufman and Michael Pomerleano, editors, Asset Price Bubbles: The Implications for Monetary, Regulatory and International Policies, Cambridge MA: MIT Press, 2003, pp. 35–40.
"Financial Markets and Risk: Solving Social Problems" (interview by Jeffrey Madrick) Challenge (May–June 2003) 46(3): 124–34.
"Finance, Optimization, and the Irreducibly Irrational Component of Human Behavior," The Handbook of the Economics of Finance Edited by George Constantinides, Milton Harris and René Stulz, Elsevier/North Holland, 2003, pp. 1125–28.
"Financial Radar," in Risk, Control and Performance, McKinsey & Company, 2003, pp. 34–35.
"In Memory of Franco Modigliani, 1918-2003," Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2003.
"Insure your pay packet, house price and country," The Guardian, March 31, 2003, p. 25.
"The Market’s Most Valuable Stock is Trust," Wall Street Journal September 25, 2003, p. A18.
"Mind the Gap," The New York Times, May 15, 2003, p. A35.
"Periods of Turmoil Bring the Promise of Innovation," Financial Times, August 1, 2003, p. 19.
"Risk Management for the Masses," The Economist, March 22, 2003, pp. 70–71.
"The Technology Deflator," Wall Street Journal, June 12, 2003, p. A16.
"Will the Bond Bubble Burst?" Project Syndicate, June 2003.
"Wir brauchen grundsätzliche Veränderungen," Handelsblatt, September 23, 2003, p. 9.
"Celebrity CEOs Share the Blame for Street Scandals," Wall Street Journal, op-ed page, June 27, 2002, A20.
"A Different Role for Government" (review of David Moss, When All Else Fails: Government as the Ultimate Risk Manager) Challenge 132-5, July-August 2002.
"Safe as Houses?" Wall Street Journal, op-ed page, December 17, 2002, reprinted in Japanese in Nomura Securities Fixed Income Research, December 24, 2002.
"Which Way for the Stock Market?" (with Jeremy J. Siegel) The Frank M. Engle Lecture, Bryn Mawr Pennsylvania: The American College, 2002.
"The Fed Can’t Prop Up the Falling Markets," Wall Street Journal, op-ed page, March 16, 2001, p. A18(Also translated in Handelsblatt, Germany, "Die Fed kann die Aktienkurse nicht nach oben treiben," March 20, 2001.
"How Markets React to a Crisis," The Observer (London), September 16, 2001.
"Irrational Exuberance: What Brought the Bubble to Japan and the US," Diamond Magazine, Japan, February 24, 2001, pp. 104–5 (in Japanese).
"Just Another Super-Highway," Financial Times, op-ed page, August 1, 2001, p. 13.
"The Mystery of Economic Recessions," New York Times, op-ed page, February 4, 2001.
"Lowered Expectations Could Topple Economy," San Jose Mercury News, Perspectives Section, February 25, 2001, p. 1C.
"Paradigmenwechsel in der Finanzmarktforschung," Neue Zürcher Zeitung, August 5, 2001. (reprinted in Ernst Fehr and Gerhard Schwarz, editors, Psychologische Grundlagen der Öknomie, Zürich: Verlag Neue Zürcher Zeitung, 2002 pp. 83–90.
"A Recession Unlike Any Other," Wall Street Journal, op-ed page, November 27, 2001, p. A22.
"A Safety Net for our Future,´Financial Times, op-ed page, January 12, 2001, p. 17.
"The Ascent of Mount Irrational," Financial Times (London), Front Page, Weekend Money, April 8, 2000.
"Margin Calls: Should Fed Step In? No, Meddling Makes Things Worse," Wall Street Journal, Op-Ed Page, April 10, 2000.
"Pffffffft! The Bubble Won't Burst ... But It Will Deflate Over Time. You Can Bet On It," The Washington Post, OUTLOOK, Sunday, May 14, 2000.
"Wealthy Market? Yes. Healthy? Wise? No." New York Times III-4 col. 5, Sunday April 30, 2000.
"You'd Better Get Ready for the Bull to Die," Financial Post (Canada), Page C01/Front, April 11, 2000.
"Long-Term Inflation Fighters" (with John Y. Campbell), Op-Ed Page, New York Times, May 18, 1996.
"Who's Minding the Store?" Background paper for the Report of the Task Force on Market Speculation and Corporate Governance, The Twentieth Century Fund, New York 1992.
"Fear of a Crash Caused the Crash" (with William Feltus), The New York Times, October 29, 1989.
"Crash Course," Washington Post, April 10, 1988.
"Economic Forecasting," The New York Times, Op-Ed Page, April 7, 1981.
July 2005 The Culture of Entrepreneurship
June 2005 Managing Risk to Save the Poor
May 2005 Stock Market Fantasies
April 2005 Live Long and Prosper
March 2005 Butlers, Bakers, and Capitalists?
February 2005 Create Growth-Linked Bonds
January 2005 Can We Insure against Tsunamis?
December 2004 Betting the House
November 2004 Labor in a World of Financial Capitalism
October 2004 Are We Running Out of Oil (Again)?
September 2004 Are Housing Prices a House of Cards?
August 2004 Fear and Loathing in the First World
July 2004 The Electronic Money Revolution
June 2004 Will Rising Interest Rates Torpedo Stock and House Prices?
May 2004 Making a Market for Scientific Research
April 2004 The Political Stock Market
March 2004 The Machine That Ate Jobs
February 2004 Saving a World that Doesn't Save
January 2004 Wild about Risk
December 2003 How Corrupt are US Capital Markets?
November 2003 Nurturing the Creative Roots of Growth
October 2003 Learning Economic Dynamism
September 2003 Is There a Bubble in Home Prices?
August 2003 Mexico's Labyrinth of Uncertainty
July 2003 The Real Risks of Deficits
June 2003 Will the Bond Bubble Burst?
May 2003 Democratizing Capitalism
PATENTS  [Index]
"Proxy Asset Data Processor" (with Allan Weiss), U.S. Patent #6,513,020, 2003. See
"Proxy Asset Data Processor" (with Allan Weiss), U.S. Patent 5,987,435, 1999,
"New Hope for Old Risks," CIO Magazine, Fall/Winter 2003, pp. 28–9.
"Exuberant Reporting: Media and Misinformation in the Markets," Harvard International Review, Spring 2001, pp. 60–5.
Comments on "The Stock Market and Investment in the New Economy: Some Tangible Facts and Intangible Fictions"